Home / Statistical Tools / Analysis Tools / Time Series / Moving Average
Moving Average¶
Smooth a noisy series by averaging each stretch of consecutive observations.
Where to find it
QXL Stat Tools → Analysis Tools → Time Series → Moving Average
Worked example
The Moving Average walkthrough builds this analysis step by step from sample data you can copy straight into Excel, and states every number it produces.
All six Time Series walkthroughs are listed on the How-To page.
What it does¶
The moving average replaces each point with the average of the most recent observations (the running length), which filters out short-term noise so the underlying movement is easier to see. Each smoothed value also serves as the one-step-ahead prediction of the next observation, and the tool reports how well those predictions did.
Options¶
The dialog is Time Series Smoothing, with a Data tab and an Options tab.
Data tab
- Excel / GroupBy: analyze flat Excel columns, or split by one or more GroupBy columns
- Data Columns: one or more numeric columns; each produces its own analysis
- Overlay Datasets on a Single Chart: combine the selected series into one chart
Options tab (Moving Average Options)
- Running Length: how many consecutive observations each average spans. Default 2; allowed 2 up to the number of rows in the shortest selected column.
Output¶
A worksheet named MovAvg ... containing:
- A line chart with the Actual and Fitted series over the observation Index
- A data table with Index, Actual, MA, Predicted, Error columns (MA is the moving average at that point; Predicted is the previous point's MA used as the one-step-ahead forecast)
- An Accuracy Measures table with MAPE, MAD, and MSD
Moving Average does not extend forecasts beyond the data.